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COVID-19

The Beginning of a Rise?

Analysis It’s not entirely clear yet, but I think we’re beginning to see the national case numbers rise.  Here’s a graph to help me explain why.  I’ve added lines indicating the change in the weekly peaks and valleys. As you can see, the peaks have gotten lower each week since late April.  The valleys have […]

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COVID-19

Ambiguity and Models

The national numbers are still in a space where they can be read in different ways.   The clearest signal comes from the data on deaths.  At least until a week ago, deaths were declining.  Since that time they seem to have flattened.  It remains to be seen whether that flattening will hold.  However, given that […]

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COVID-19

Almost 100,000 deaths

Sometime today or tomorrow, depending on your choice of tracker, we will cross the threshold of 100,000 reported deaths from COVID-19.  Of course we passed 100,000 actual deaths some weeks ago.  Excess mortality estimates put actual deaths 30-50% higher than reported deaths.  That would have put us at 100,000 deaths sometime in the first week […]

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COVID-19

What reopening means for the rest of the year

Some US states began reopening before the beginning of May and the rest have followed suit since then.  We’ve been waiting to see the results of the reopening, and the numbers have finally stabilized enough to show them.  The expectation was that reopening would result in more cases than remaining closed, and this is supported […]

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COVID-19

Abstraction and Reality

We’re still in the doldrums waiting for a clear sign on the effect of reopening.  This at least means that reopenings have not caused immediate surges.  However, there are some indications of rising numbers, though they aren’t yet conclusive in general.  Overall, it’s too soon to tell. There are a few clear cases.  Texas started […]

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COVID-19

Vaccines, slopes, and a projection.

Vaccines We’re all waiting anxiously for a vaccine, and vaccine development is progressing with unprecedented speed.  There are a number of promising trials at various stages.  The Trump administration has set a goal of having widespread vaccination by the end of the year.  Despite all this, it’s important to remember that meeting such a goal […]

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COVID-19

Looking for Effects

As far as the numbers go, we’ve been waiting to see whether Sundays’ very low numbers represent a real improvement or just noise, and we’ve been waiting for the first signs of reopening to appear.  We have some preliminary answers on both counts. **Sunday’s Numbers** On Sunday, May 10, both the new case and new […]

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COVID-19

5/13

The national numbers have bounced back up somewhat since Sunday’s drop but are still lower than they were a week ago. However, the difference is considerably less than it was.  On Sunday, the week over week new case numbers were down by 5791 cases.  Tuesday’s new case number was down only 2283 cases from the […]

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COVID-19

Explaining the Drop

Yesterday’s new cases and deaths were the lowest we’ve seen in a long time.  On the Johns Hopkins tracker, there were 19,710 new cases and 731 deaths on May 10.  These are the lowest numbers we’ve seen since the end of March.  If that sounds like great news, it is.  However, it’s worth digging into […]

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COVID-19

Boring Numbers

The numbers are boring this week.  We’re plugging along at about the speed we have been with little to no detectable change.  Even the weekly cycle is about the same.  New York and New Jersey are still in decline and driving the national numbers down while other states drive them up.  We’re in a holding […]